The September prediction has gone reasonably well as it was certainly wet and thundery mid-month and warmer than average, in fact very much warmer than average. At the time of writing on the 29th, the mean average temperature at my Radcliffe on Trent station is three degrees Celsius above normal, making it the warmest September since 2006 and provisionally, the 4th warmest since 1659. So what of the remainder of the autumn and early winter as I haven't had a good look at January and February just yet.
As usual the press have had a field day, with the latest rumour suggesting some cold weather between now and the end of the year. This I have had a look at and for the change there could be some truth in it, despite no real signs at present of a particularly cold period. Let us take a look at the cold Octobers since the war. These are 1951,1952,1955,1956,1964,1973,1974,1980,1981,1992, 1993 & 2003. The cold Novembers are 1950,1952,1956,1961,1962,1965,1966,1967,1969,1971,1973,1985,1988,1993,1996 & 2010. Looking at December, we come up with 1946,1950,1952,1960,1961,1962,1963,1964,1968,1969,19767,1978,1981,1992,1995,1996,2001,2008,2009 &2010.
The thing that stands out here are the cold months of the 1960's and the 22/23year Hale cycle which is due. The current warming trend however seems to be limiting the prospect of some imminent cold weather, but nevertheless Hale cannot be ignored. Now lets take a good at the severely cold months within the sequence above. October 1974,1981,1992 & 1993. November 1952,1965,1985,1988,1993 & 2010. December 1946,1950,1952,1961,1962,1963,1968,1976,1981,1995,1996 & 2010. We can still see the influence of the solar cycle and Hale, but also an approximate 7 year cycle which is allied to Q.B.O.
If we now randomly put these severely cold months in chronological order, we get 1946,1950,1952,1961,1962,1963,1965,1968,1974,1976,1981,1985,1988,1992,1993,1995,1998 & 2010. It's seven years since the last Hale winter of 2009/10 if we add the same number to 1985/6, 1962/3 and 1940/1, we come up with 1992,1969 & 1947. Giving us a leeway of one year either side, all these years are featured above suggesting some element of cold between now and the end of the year.
We have a full moon/perigee assist in mid-November, suggesting that to some extent 13 but more importantly a 31 year cycle could be in operation. This would give us 1985 and 1954. 1985 is in the sequence, with 1954 exceptionally mild in October and December suggesting a far South fetch of the 'Jet Stream' from the Azores. Note too other 31 year or approximately 31 year cycles in the sequence particularly in December. So it's question of what side these wild swings of the 'Jet Stream' we shall be on. On the evidence above it could be the cold side giving us some wintry conditions at times before Christmas and the New Year most likely in December.
As far as the remainder of the winter is concerned, I will have a better look at this in November when the cooling process on the nearby continental will be more prominent. At present though and looking at the January's and Februaries that followed the years above, while some are cold, none other than those in the main Hale years and near sunspot minimum not relevant at the moment, are severely cold.
Food for thought, but one I hope you find an interesting read. No computer models used here.
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